An important scientific publication
WFS extension - The World Forum on Shooting Activities of which ANPAM file is a founding member - he commissioned Arcadis US, a world-leading consultancy and design company in civil and environmental engineering present in 70 Countries, to carry out a study on the methodologies used to date for the calculation of reduction of the European bird population, caused by the ingestion of lead shot. The research, published in the international scientific journal PLOS ONE (see link), has shown how the current estimates of land bird losses in Europe due to the ingestion of lead ammunition, also used by ECHA to draft the restriction proposal use of such ammunition, rely on uncertain or generic assumptions. Specifically, according to the study's conclusions, the intermediate estimates of population size reduction are lower than those sustained; decreases which also depend on the life history of the species, from maximum growth rate, the population trend and the hypothesis of reduced reproduction.
ECHA, European Chemicals Agency
The study has undergone a review by the relevant scientific community and is therefore very robust in its scientific rigor. By doing a quick assessment of some of the main findings of the study, it is clear that:
• TheTHROW assumes that the size of the bird populations is reduced by the additional annual mortality, however, ECHA did not have a quantitative or qualitative estimate of the percentage of terrestrial carnivorous birds experiencing lead poisoning when drafting the restriction proposal.
• ECHA also developed a highly uncertain estimate of the 1% decrease in land birds due to ingestion of lead shot.
• The data supporting the estimate comes mainly from the United Kingdom (however, outside the European Union) and ECHA has mixed statistics of different nature and origin that are not mathematically comparable.
Instead, the two-phase analysis model proposed by the authors of the study contrasts with the 1-phase approach of ECHA, integrating the latter's shortcomings, as:
1. Responds to the need to assess the percentage of carcasses dead due to ingestion of lead ammunition (necropsy data and actual pathological reports or field tracking data available with transmitters), and then convert that percentage into annual mortality rates ;
2. Use a model that incorporates population dynamics to assess changes in tace of growth and in its size, based on the number and condition of the carcasses.
Using the study model, the authors estimate the population losses for fowl at about 0,2% from direct poisoning (lead poisoning is a direct cause of bird death) and 1,4% for the final estimate of deaths caused by the ingestion of lead (i.e. the cases in which lead is not the direct cause of death), with an average estimate of 0.8%. The estimated direct cause of death (0,2%) is a significantly lower estimate (5 times less) to that of 1% arbitrarily chosen by ECHA and used to estimate population losses without taking into account differences between Member States in exposure to lead or in the type of bird population.
Important conclusions
In essence, Arcadis US has proved that the methodology currently used at the basis of most of the studies and publications is not efficient and actually leads to incorrect results. Thus, to counter the spread of uncertain and false data, Arcadis US suggested the importance of developing a more sustainable study methodology for quantify the decline in the bird population in Europe. With the aim of obtaining defensible and compatible European data without interfering in the natural development of birds, through this new two-stage approach.