Italian Wilderness Association on censuses relating to the Marsican Bear, real "sleight of hand".
It is well known that with sleight of hand things are shown only apparently true, but which are not true although they appear to be true to those who do not know the trick of the illusionist. Even mathematics, it is said, is not an opinion. But with numbers you can play however you want; and bankers and financial operators know this well (and investors only belatedly!). As well as statistics or polls, which can be manipulated as you wish. Or the political elections, where all the parties usually win, even those that have blatantly lost. And what about the cup game, where the hand is faster than the eye? With the Marsican Bear, by dint of counts, censuses, genetic analyzes and data crossing (each time with the hope that the Eternal Father has put his hand to it, making more specimens appear than the real ones, perhaps transforming some male too many into female fruitful!) you always end up making public opinion believe what you want. Well, perhaps the Minister of the Environment did well when he decided to appoint a politician to the position of President of the Park: you know, politicians are champions in these games; and who better than a politician could be able to make believe that the Marsican Bear has recovered, and instead of towards extinction, the population is moving towards growth? This, despite the now long-standing absolute lack of any food support action, with the bear reduced to begging in chicken coops and in the villages like any other bum (because the bear knows that it was man who provided him with the food he gives years refuses to let him find). In practice, more than in human actions (which have not been there for years, despite the appeals of breeders, farmers and some environmentalists), we hope every time for a miracle. And if the miracle does not appear, then they do ... sleight of hand to make believe that it is happening.
Let's see what the President of the Park has disclosed in his latest press releases on the Marsican Bear, in an attempt to transform what is a blatant defeat into victory (others had already tried before him, but obviously they like the game). First he gave us a figure spread over the last 9 years: 64 puppies born between 2006 and 2014. Obviously it seemed like good news, because what is striking is the number: 64. But dividing this number by the years, here we come to find out that there would have been an average birth of only 7 teddy bears per year which, if compared with neonatal mortality and deaths for the same years, give a decidedly negative trend (the same official data of the Park speak of a population of 38 bears today and 49 in 2011, with a loss of about ten specimens in the last three years). In fact, it should not be ignored (which the Park does) that, notoriously, never (or very rarely) all teddy bears reach adulthood and that their mortality is at least 50% in the first years of life, to which must be added losses in the years immediately following. Instead, the news of the 64 teddy bears was given as a success, making it illusory to believe that all those 64 teddy bears later became adults! And, in addition, down also data on ... nothing: number of collaborators (in the censuses), number of "prevention actions" and meetings (meetings?) With "breeders, hunters, tourists and citizens", even of "classes and number of pupils ”: as if the bears needed this, instead of corn fields!
Shortly before Christmas, then, a second press release, almost as a "good-natured" gift to public opinion. This time more precise and referred to only 2014: 11 (maybe 13) teddy bears born to 5 (maybe 6) females. Again, no reference to neonatal mortality which before a year will reduce them by at least half, and perhaps even less. And, above all, without the proper comparison with the bears that died in the same 12-month period between 2013 and 2014: that is, 5 bears (all found "at random", which statistically means that perhaps as many have not been found). So 11 minus 5 equals 6 (to be optimistic!).
Result: only one more bear! If this is not a sleight of hand…! And then, of course (God forbid!), No comparison with past data (which might reveal the trick!).
For example, with those of 1970 (official and "scientific"!), When in that year alone there were not 11 teddy bears, but 11 females with babies for a total of 22 cubs! Other times, it will be said, other characters and a population of bears that at least today we can evaluate as widely flourishing; bears that all lived in the Park and its close neighborhoods. Without sleight of hand and without 15 million euros for research and counting. But with still thousands of sheep on the pastures and in the stazzi, and fields of corn, wheat and sainfoin in all the valleys of the Park.
Frank Zunino
Secretary General of the Italian Wilderness Association - formerly the first scholar in the field of the Marsican Bear
(January 2, 2015)